Macro Dashboard
The Macro Dashboard provides economic indicators and analysis sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system. Understanding macroeconomic conditions helps traders contextualize market movements and anticipate potential regime changes.
Overview
TradeAnon aggregates key economic indicators from the Federal Reserve and presents them with historical context, percentile rankings, and trend analysis. The dashboard focuses on indicators most relevant to financial markets: yield curves, credit conditions, employment, and growth metrics.
What This Feature Provides
- Yield Curve Analysis — Treasury spreads and inversion signals
- Credit Conditions — Corporate spreads and financial stress
- Employment Data — Unemployment, claims, and labor market health
- Growth Indicators — GDP, industrial production, and leading indicators
- Inflation Metrics — CPI, PCE, and inflation expectations
- Historical Context — Percentile rankings and long-term trends
Why It Matters
Macroeconomic conditions drive:
- Market Cycles — Economic expansions and contractions affect asset prices
- Sector Rotation — Different economic phases favor different sectors
- Risk Appetite — Credit conditions influence risk-taking behavior
- Federal Reserve Policy — Economic data drives monetary policy decisions
Key Metrics
Yield Curve
The yield curve shows interest rates across different Treasury maturities.
Key Spreads Tracked:
| Spread | Calculation | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y | 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury | Classic recession indicator |
| 10Y-3M | 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury | Fed's preferred spread |
| 30Y-10Y | 30-Year minus 10-Year Treasury | Long-end term premium |
Interpretation:
- Normal (positive): Longer-term rates higher than short-term
- Flat (near zero): Transition period, uncertainty
- Inverted (negative): Historically precedes recessions
The 10Y-2Y spread has inverted before every US recession since 1970, though lead times vary from 6 to 24 months.
Credit Spreads
The difference between corporate bond yields and risk-free Treasury rates.
Key Spreads:
| Spread | Description |
|---|---|
| Investment Grade | AAA/BAA corporate vs Treasury |
| High Yield | Junk bond yields vs Treasury |
| TED Spread | Eurodollar vs T-bill (interbank stress) |
Interpretation:
- Widening spreads: Increasing credit risk, risk-off environment
- Tight spreads: Risk appetite, favorable lending conditions
- Extreme widening: Credit crisis conditions
Unemployment Rate
The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.
Interpretation:
- Below 4%: Historically low, tight labor market
- 4-5%: Normal range
- Above 6%: Elevated unemployment, economic weakness
- Rising trend: Potential recession signal
- Falling trend: Economic recovery/expansion
Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly count of new unemployment insurance claims.
Interpretation:
- Below 250K: Strong labor market
- 250-350K: Normal range
- Above 350K: Labor market weakness
- Sharp increases: Potential economic turning point
This is a leading indicator because job losses often precede broader economic weakness.
Federal Funds Rate
The target rate set by the Federal Reserve for overnight interbank lending.
Interpretation:
- Rising rates: Fed tightening to slow inflation
- Falling rates: Fed easing to stimulate growth
- Zero bound: Emergency accommodation (2008-2015, 2020-2022)
GDP Growth
Real Gross Domestic Product growth rate (quarter-over-quarter, annualized).
Interpretation:
- Above 3%: Strong growth
- 2-3%: Trend growth
- 0-2%: Below trend
- Negative: Economic contraction (recession if sustained)
Economic Indicators by Category
Leading Indicators
Metrics that tend to change before the broader economy:
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Building Permits
- Manufacturing New Orders
- Yield Curve Slope
- Stock Market Performance
- Consumer Confidence
Coincident Indicators
Metrics that move with the current economy:
- Employment/Payrolls
- Industrial Production
- Personal Income
- Manufacturing Sales
Lagging Indicators
Metrics that confirm trends already underway:
- Unemployment Rate
- CPI Inflation
- Corporate Profits
- Average Duration of Unemployment
How to Use This Feature
Market Regime Assessment
- Check yield curve for inversion/normalization status
- Review credit spreads for risk appetite signals
- Monitor employment for economic health
- Compare to historical percentiles for context
Sector Allocation
Economic conditions favor different sectors:
| Economic Phase | Favored Sectors |
|---|---|
| Early Recovery | Consumer Discretionary, Financials |
| Mid Cycle | Technology, Industrials |
| Late Cycle | Energy, Materials |
| Recession | Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples |
Risk Management
- Inverted yield curve: Increase defensive exposure
- Widening credit spreads: Reduce high-beta positions
- Rising jobless claims: Prepare for volatility
- Falling rates: Consider duration exposure
Practical Examples
Example 1: Recession Warning
Yield curve inverts (10Y-2Y goes negative):
- Credit spreads begin widening
- Jobless claims trend higher
- Consumer confidence declining
Interpretation: Multiple indicators suggest economic weakness ahead. Reduce cyclical exposure, increase defensive sectors and cash.
Example 2: Recovery Signal
After recession:
- Yield curve steepens (normalizes)
- Credit spreads tighten
- Jobless claims peak and decline
- Industrial production rebounds
Interpretation: Early recovery conditions favor cyclical sectors and risk-on positioning.
Example 3: Inflation Concerns
CPI accelerating while:
- Unemployment low
- GDP growth strong
- Fed funds rate rising
Interpretation: Inflationary environment may pressure growth stocks. Consider value, commodities, and shorter-duration assets.
Data Update Schedule
| Indicator | Frequency | Typical Release |
|---|---|---|
| Yield Curve | Daily | Market close |
| Credit Spreads | Daily | Market close |
| Initial Claims | Weekly | Thursday morning |
| Employment Report | Monthly | First Friday |
| GDP | Quarterly | Monthly revisions |
| CPI/PCE Inflation | Monthly | Mid-month |
Limitations
- Indicators lag reality — Economic data reflects past activity
- Revisions common — Initial releases are often revised significantly
- This cycle may differ — Historical patterns don't guarantee future outcomes
- Multiple interpretations — Same data can support different conclusions
Data Source
All macroeconomic data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED aggregates data from government agencies, international organizations, and private sources.
Related Concepts
Subscription Access
| Tier | Access Level |
|---|---|
| Free | Limited indicators |
| Pro | All indicators |
| Enterprise | All indicators |