Volatility Intelligence
The Volatility Intelligence dashboard provides comprehensive analysis of market volatility through VIX and related derivatives, realized volatility calculations, and term structure analysis. Understanding volatility is essential for options traders, risk managers, and anyone seeking to gauge market conditions.
Overview
Volatility is a measure of price variability over time. The VIX Index, often called the "fear gauge," measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility derived from S&P 500 option prices. TradeAnon extends basic VIX analysis with term structure, realized volatility comparisons, and proprietary indicators.
What This Feature Provides
- VIX Analytics — Current and historical VIX readings with context
- Term Structure — VIX futures curve analysis (contango/backwardation)
- Volatility Risk Premium — Spread between implied and realized volatility
- VVIX Analysis — Volatility of VIX for regime detection
- Session Thirds — Intraday volatility patterns
- Historical Percentiles — Where current readings rank historically
Why It Matters
Volatility drives:
- Options Pricing — Higher volatility means higher option premiums
- Risk Assessment — Elevated VIX often accompanies market stress
- Position Sizing — Volatility informs appropriate trade size
- Market Regime — Volatility levels help identify market character (trending vs choppy)
Key Metrics
VIX Index
The CBOE Volatility Index measures expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500.
Interpretation:
- 10-15: Low volatility, complacent market
- 15-20: Normal volatility
- 20-30: Elevated volatility, heightened uncertainty
- 30+: High volatility, significant market stress
- 40+: Extreme volatility, crisis conditions
VIX is mean-reverting: extreme highs tend to decline, and extended lows often precede volatility expansion.
VVIX (Volatility of VIX)
The VVIX measures expected volatility of the VIX itself, derived from VIX option prices.
Interpretation:
- 80-100: Normal range
- Below 80: Low uncertainty about future VIX
- Above 120: High uncertainty, potential for large VIX moves
- Above 150: Extreme readings, often at market turning points
VVIX spikes often precede significant market moves and can signal regime changes.
VIX Term Structure
The VIX futures curve shows expected volatility at different time horizons.
Contango (Normal):
- Front-month futures trade below back-month futures
- Market expects volatility to increase in the future
- Typical ~85% of the time
Backwardation (Inverted):
- Front-month futures trade above back-month futures
- Market expects current high volatility to decrease
- Often occurs during market stress
Term Structure Ratio:
VIX3M/VIX Ratio = VIX3M Index / VIX Index
- Ratio > 1.0: Contango (normal)
- Ratio < 1.0: Backwardation (stressed)
- Extreme readings provide trading signals
Realized Volatility (RV)
Actual historical price volatility calculated from past price movements.
RV = Standard Deviation of Log Returns × √252
TradeAnon calculates realized volatility over multiple windows:
- 10-day RV — Short-term actual volatility
- 20-day RV — Medium-term actual volatility
- 30-day RV — Standard comparison period
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)
The difference between implied volatility (VIX) and realized volatility.
VRP = VIX - Realized Volatility (20-day)
Interpretation:
- Positive VRP (typical): Implied volatility exceeds realized; options are "expensive"
- Negative VRP (rare): Realized volatility exceeds implied; options are "cheap"
- Average: VRP historically averages 3-5 points
- High VRP (>10): Selling premium may be attractive
- Negative VRP: Buying protection may be attractive
How to Use This Feature
Daily Volatility Assessment
- Check current VIX level and compare to historical percentile
- Review term structure for contango/backwardation
- Calculate VRP to assess option pricing
- Monitor VVIX for regime change signals
Options Trading Application
For options traders:
- High VIX + High VRP: Consider premium selling strategies
- Low VIX + Contango: Volatility expansion trades (long volatility)
- VIX Spike + Backwardation: Often a climax; consider mean reversion trades
- VVIX Spike: Prepare for potential regime change
Risk Management
For portfolio risk management:
- Elevated VIX: Reduce position sizes, tighten stops
- VIX at extremes: Consider hedging adjustments
- Term structure inversion: Increase cash, reduce risk exposure
- Low VIX + Low VVIX: Complacency warning; maintain hedges
Session Thirds Analysis
TradeAnon tracks VIX and SPX at three points during the trading session:
| Session Third | Time (Eastern) | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| T1 | 10:45 AM | Morning sentiment |
| T2 | 1:15 PM | Midday adjustment |
| T3 | 3:45 PM | Closing positioning |
Application:
- Compare VIX changes across session thirds
- Identify patterns in intraday volatility
- Detect institutional positioning shifts before close
Practical Examples
Example 1: VIX Mean Reversion
VIX spikes to 35 during a market selloff:
- Term structure inverts (backwardation)
- VVIX spikes to 140
- VRP turns negative (realized > implied)
Interpretation: Conditions are consistent with a volatility climax. Historical data suggests VIX spikes are mean-reverting. Once selling pressure exhausts, VIX typically declines.
Example 2: Complacency Warning
VIX drifts to 12 over several weeks:
- Term structure steep contango
- VVIX at 75 (low)
- VRP compressed to 2 points
Interpretation: Extended low volatility and complacency often precedes volatility expansion. Protective hedges are relatively cheap; consider adding.
Example 3: Elevated VRP Opportunity
VIX at 22, 20-day RV at 14:
- VRP = 8 points (elevated)
- Term structure normal contango
- VVIX normal at 95
Interpretation: Options appear expensive relative to recent price action. Premium selling strategies may offer edge.
Limitations
- VIX is not predictive — It measures current expectations, not future outcomes
- Term structure can persist — Backwardation doesn't guarantee immediate VIX decline
- VRP changes — Historical VRP averages may not apply in all regimes
- Intraday volatility — Session thirds are snapshots, not continuous data
Data Sources
| Metric | Source | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| VIX Index | CBOE | End of day |
| VVIX Index | CBOE | End of day |
| VIX Futures | CBOE Futures | End of day |
| VIX3M, VIX6M | CBOE | End of day |
| SPX Prices | CBOE | End of day |
Related Concepts
- VIX Index
- VVIX
- Realized Volatility
- Volatility Risk Premium
- Contango/Backwardation
- Volatility Metrics Concepts
Subscription Access
| Tier | Access Level |
|---|---|
| Free | Basic VIX reading |
| Pro | Full analytics |
| Enterprise | Full analytics |